by Silvia
Merler on 10th March 2015
Discussions
between Greece Greece
Here we take a look at the relevant deadlines
ahead for the Greek
State
Redemptions
to official creditors
The path of
redemptions to public creditors in 2015 is dominated by repayments to the IMF,
T-Bills rollover and repayment of bonds held by the ECB
As
previously discussed, the path of redemptions to public creditors in 2015 is
dominated by repayments to the IMF, T-Bills rollover and, in July and August,
repayment of bonds held by the ECB. In March, Greece Greece
Beyond
repayments to official creditors, the Greek government also needs to meet its
ordinary primary expenditures during the year, so it is useful to have an idea
of what these are and how much they account for. According to the 2015 budget
published in November 2014 (unfortunately available in Greek only) the ordinary
primary expenditure at the State level is expected to be about 42 billion for
the entire year. Total expenditures are expected to be 56 billion at the State
level.
About 78%
of the State ordinary primary expenditure is accounted for by payments of
wages, salaries and pensions as well as of insurance, health care and social
protections. An indicative monthly distribution of expenditures provided in the
2015 budget suggests that in March the government will need to pay about 1.5
billion in salaries and pensions and 1.3 billion in insurance, healthcare and
social protection (with similar payments foreseen over the following months,
see also Macropolis here). These are expenditure items that are not easy to
avoid or reduce in the case of liquidity shortage, at least not without having
a significant social and economic
impact.
ECB
president Draghi reportedly told Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis yesterday
that the Greek government’s books needed to be examined to determine its
financing shortfall, and Commission, IMF and ECB staff are due to start the
work in Athens Greek State
According
to a recent interview, finance minister Varoufakis suggested that the situation
is not as rosy as previously thought:
“I can only say that we have money to pay salaries and pensions of
public employees. [...] For the rest we will see”. Kathimerini reported yesterday
that the General Accounting Office has blocked any state expenditure not
related to salaries and pensions. The same article reports a government
official as saying that the budget has 4,772 expenditure categories - not
salary-related - and that a review has allegedly saved about 180 million.
Recent
analyses by Macropolis suggest that the government can rely on a number of
sources in the very short term. Following two recent ministerial decisions, it
could utilize cash reserves of 250 million euros from OPEKEPE, e organisation
responsible for managing Common Agricultural Policy aid, and 114 million from
the Hellenic Telecommunications and Post Commission (EETT). On top of that, the
Bank of Greece’s financial accounts show that the profits for 2014 amount to
641 million euro which, according to Macropolis, were also transferred to the
government at the end of February. Possibly, 500 million more could come from a
fund in the Hellenic Financial Stability Facility which, according to recent
news, could be drawn upon subject to a law amendment.
Altogether,
this adds up to 1 billion, which could
be precious to Greece
As
previously shown, the Greek budget execution data for January showed a
significant underperformance of revenues compared to the targets set. According to the Ministry of Finance, this
was mainly due to the extension of a VAT payment deadline until the end of
February 2015 (Figure 2). The data presented here suggest yet another reason
why this is worrying. The budget
execution data released in February will be key to watch.
http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1588-greek-payment-deadlines-ahead/
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